Short Presentation (chance to upgrade) Australian Marine Sciences Association 2026 Conference

From Maps to Management: Modelling Current and Future Dolphin Habitat Suitability to Inform Spatial Risk Assessments and Conservation Planning in South Australia (139052)

Michelle Newman 1 , Luciana Moller 1 , Tessa Lane 1 , Ryan Baring 1 , Catherine Kemper 2 , Kerstin Bilgmann 3 4 , Guido J Parra 1
  1. College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia
  2. Adelaide University, Adelaide, South Australia
  3. School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales
  4. Edith Cowan University, Perth, Western Australia

Coastal dolphins are increasingly exposed to cumulative anthropogenic pressures. In South Australian gulfs and adjacent coastal waters, key threats to Indo-Pacific bottlenose (Tursiops aduncus) and common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) include recreational and commercial fisheries interactions, vessel traffic, habitat degradation, and climate change. Changing climatic conditions and increased risk of environmental perturbations are likely to influence future dolphin habitat suitability and alter exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To support spatial risk assessments of cumulative impacts, we developed species-specific habitat suitability models using MaxEnt species distribution modelling and projected future dolphin habitat suitability under three IPCC climate scenarios. Results under current climate conditions indicated that bottlenose dolphins prefer shallow coastal waters, with highest predicted habitat suitability in mid- and northern gulf areas, while common dolphins were associated with deeper waters, with highest habitat suitability predicted in southern and mid-gulf areas. Integrating these current and future species-specific habitat suitability models with spatial data on anthropogenic pressures will enable identification of areas where high-quality dolphin habitat overlaps with human activity. This approach enables development of spatial risk assessments for targeted management and mitigation strategies to prioritise protection of bottlenose and common dolphins in South Australian waters and address cumulative impacts on the marine environment.