Seascape connectivity models play a central role in managing coral reefs, underpinning decisions on marine protected areas, restoration, and climate resilience. Yet while the physical oceanography driving larval transport is increasingly well resolved, the biological processes that shape coral connectivity remain highly uncertain.
We conducted a systematic review of 453 studies to assess how physical and biological processes—and their uncertainties—are represented in coral connectivity research. We found a persistent imbalance: hydrodynamic models are becoming more precise, but key larval traits such as pelagic larval duration, competency, mortality, behaviour, and settlement are sparsely measured and inconsistently implemented. These biological assumptions are often simplified or treated as fixed values, despite evidence that alternative plausible formulations can produce large, nonlinear differences in predicted connectivity.
This mismatch creates an illusion of precision that may not translate into decision‑relevant guidance. We argue that integrating seascape connectivity into effective coastal and marine management requires explicitly accounting for biological uncertainty. Ensemble‑based connectivity predictions, targeted empirical investment, and transparent reporting of uncertainty are essential to ensure connectivity models are fit for purpose in dynamic and changing marine environments.