The influence of sea‑level rise (SLR) on mangrove ecosystems is an active area of research due to their critical ecological and coastal protection functions. Mangroves in the Pilbara region of Western Australia occupy a broad and dynamic intertidal environment and are exposed to SLR within a complex hydrodynamic and geomorphic setting. In this region, mangroves predominantly form fringing forests along the coastline and extend landwards along tidal creeks, bordered by extensive mudflats, algal mats, high intertidal flats, and supratidal saltflats. Water‑level variability is pronounced, with seasonal and interannual fluctuations of approximately 20 cm, further influenced by extreme events and large‑scale climate variability such as ENSO, which strongly influence inundation extent and frequency.
In this study, we apply a Nature‑Based Solutions (NBS) dynamic framework to predict the future evolution of mangroves under varying sea‑level rise scenarios, using Giralia in the Exmouth Gulf as a case study. The NBS dynamics were calibrated using satellite‑derived historical mangrove extents, achieving approximately 70% accuracy. The calibrated model was then used to simulate future mangrove dynamics under SLR scenarios, alongside concurrent morphodynamic responses. Preliminary results indicate landward mangrove migration and expansion potential under moderate SLR, while SLR exceeding ~0.8 m results in substantial habitat loss. Detailed results will be presented at the conference.